Nvidia’s $100 billion commitment to OpenAI—and OpenAI’s reciprocal chip purchases—signal an AI arms race accelerating at breakneck speed. How can leaders make sense of this market? An examination of recent history (particularly the parallels between this moment and the recent dot-com bubble) offers some clues. Speculative capital and circular financing can distort timing and expectations, particularly where AI adoption remains uneven. Currently, consumer enthusiasm outpaces enterprise integration, raising the risk of overcapacity. For leaders, ignoring AI is not an option—but chasing hype is perilous. Durable advantage will come from disciplined investment, embedding AI into workflows, and shaping governance to balance innovation with resilience.